Inside Markets — Inflation Easing
Inflation has been easing with headline numbers near +2.5% and likely on the way to +2% given favorable base effects from seasonal adjustment factors.
Inside Markets — Catalyst Vacuum
Wednesday’s inline CPI report and yesterday’s improved retail sales number combined to temporarily reestablish the Goldilocks narrative that died in the wake of the 8/2 Jobs Report.
Inside Markets — Easing Recession Fears
The SPX managed to close just above the post-payroll downside gap at 5447 yesterday with today’s improved retail-sales report and July-end earnings easing near-term recession fears.
Inside Markets — Room for Asset Prices to Fall
Equity markets started pricing for an increased probability of recession after a large drop in ISM manufacturing and big increase in weekly jobless claims on 8/1 was followed by a July payroll miss on 8/2.
Inside Markets — Downside Gap
The SPX has already recovered all losses from last Monday’s yen-induced sell-off but remains below the post-payrolls downside gap at 5447 from the preceding Friday.
Inside Markets — Tactically Bearish
The SPX keeps a bearish bias at levels below 5447, with investors demanding a higher risk premium following last Monday’s volatility spike.
Inside Markets — Catalyst-Heavy Week
The upcoming catalyst-heavy week will include a number of reports including CPI, PPI, trade prices, retail sales and jobless claims.
Inside Markets — Rebound
The SPX has already experienced a functional correction of -8.5% and is now rebounding off short-term oversold levels.
Inside Markets — Volatility
A corrective phase based on concerns around weakening economic growth may only last 1-2 months if the slowdown is deemed to be short or shallow.
Inside Markets — Rebound
US equities are higher in a relatively tentative rebound on reassuring Fed/BOJ comments and better-than-feared overnight earnings.