Inside Markets

The SPX is showing clear evidence of rally exhaustion, but the bullish trend remains intact above ~6350.

Software has meaningfully lagged the broader S&P 500 and semiconductor industry YTD leading to a very low level of sentiment and positioning in the space.

Tariff-related price adjustments will result in higher observable inflation over the next few months.

Consensus is only looking for non-farm payrolls of +77,500, up from July’s +73,000 surprise disappointment.

August liquidity conditions typically spill into the first week of September as market participants slowly return from vacation.

The risk/reward into tomorrow’s core PCE print is skewed to the upside given the hotter-than-expected July PPI report two weeks prior.

The small cap Russell 2000 (RTY) continues to outperform, which fits the ‘rulebook’ on investing when the yield curve is bullishly steepening.

NVDA earning report, due tomorrow after the close, is this weeks biggest catalyst.

NVDA earnings on Wednesday afternoon remains the key datapoint as we close out August.

The direction of travel is higher in a bull market, and the SPX keeps its bullish trend intact at levels above ~6250.