
Inside Markets — Liquidity Stress Relief
Repo market stress during the government shutdown could have contributed to the recent weakness in equity markets.

Repo market stress during the government shutdown could have contributed to the recent weakness in equity markets.

Today’s rebound in the momentum factor follows yesterday’s low-volume ~6.4% selloff in the group.

The momentum factor unwinds for a fourth time this calendar year with a seasonal preference to own YTD laggards likely in play.

The recent underperformance in Mag 7 stocks is likely due to a few factors, including seasonal rotation into YTD laggards.

The SPX looks like it’s completed the shallow consolidation phase we were expecting when leadership became unsustainably narrow at the end of October.

Labor market weakness sits at the top of most people’s list of worries, followed by Fed policy, AI visibility, and tariff policy outcomes.

A Supreme Court decision to strike down IEEPA tariffs could cause a short squeeze for heavy importers and a potentially dangerous spike in bond market volatility.

Narrow market breadth is a bearish internal signal that deserves attention if it lasts more than a few sessions.

Our bullish fundamental framework from May that includes resilient macro data, better earnings growth and thawing trade tensions remains intact.

There is never a shortage of identifiable risks for equity markets with the obvious near-term risk being a ‘nothing done’ on a US-China trade deal.