Election uncertainty and a failure by Congress (thus far) to agree on a fiscal relief package have combined to pressure markets lower. Election uncertainty will be with us another month at least with contested election results quickly becoming the consensus view and now being priced
Election uncertainty and a failure by Congress (thus far) to agree on a fiscal relief package have combined to pressure markets lower. Election uncertainty will be with us another month at least with contested election results quickly becoming the consensus view and now being priced
: Interim data from the Phase 3 PFE/BNTX study are expected late next month with Phase 3 MRNA results shortly thereafter and an update from Oxford/AZNA sometime in November. These are the three frontrunners, but there are currently ~38 vaccines undergoing human clinical evaluations and
Over the last 7 sessions, the S&P 500 and nearly all of its Tech sector constituents have moved from overbought to short-term oversold status. Tech had a good day yesterday, but don’t expect the group to test highs at the same speed with which it
Some of the high frequency US economic data (credit card spending, mobility etc) began to decelerate toward the end of August, which many associated with a lack of fiscal support/looming fiscal cliff. Some of the official data confirmed a loss of momentum, but downshifting from
Value sectors have outperformed growth sectors so far in September. The S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) has outperformed the S&P 500 Growth Index (SGX) by +6.7% month-to-date. This is primarily a function of improving US COVID statistics and the recent uptick in vaccine optimism.
Expectations for pre-election fiscal relief may have ticked higher following Tuesday’s $1.5T proposal from bipartisan moderates. Meadows continues to sound upbeat, Mnuchin is trying to bring people together and Trump sounds ready to sign almost any bill.
1) Today’s Fed meeting is mostly expected to be a non-event; 2) low expectations for a fifth fiscal relief bill ahead of the elections and recent strength in US labor market data (watch tomorrow’s release of weekly jobless claims) probably reduce the risk of a
The SPX is building a short-term technical base below the 9/2 all-time closing high of 3580. Many SPX constituents have already moved from short-term overbought into technical oversold status. ‘Overbought’ and ‘oversold’ are technical measurements of price and time.
The fundamental outlook continues to improve on a stronger than expected economic recovery, earnings recovery (evident in recently constructive forward guidance) and positive balance sheet/ liquidity trends.
