The ~$3T Cares Act was largely financed by the issuance of T-bills, which means the amount of debt maturing within a year is larger than the Treasury’s stated objectives. In fact, the Treasury’s August refunding announcement indicated that duration supply of 10-year bond equivalence is
US August flash PMIs extended further into expansion territory with manufacturing coming in at 53.6 vs consensus for 52, and services improving to 54.8 from 50 last month and beating consensus for 51. Today’s better than expected US August PMI data and improving coronavirus trends
At new highs, the S&P 500 may not face overhead supply but technical resistance still exists. At the moment, the SPX is trading above easy-to-identify resistance at ~3450, but the close is far more important. If the SPX closes above 3450, we’ll turn our attention
US August flash PMIs extended further into expansion territory with manufacturing coming in at 53.6 vs consensus for 52, and services improving to 54.8 from 50 last month and beating consensus for 51. Today’s better than expected US August PMI data and improving coronavirus trends
US August flash PMIs extended further into expansion territory with manufacturing coming in at 53.6 vs consensus for 52, and services improving to 54.8 from 50 last month and beating consensus for 51. Today’s better than expected US August PMI data and improving coronavirus trends
The S&P 500 faded from intraday highs following the release of July FOMC meeting minutes, but there was nothing in the report to change near-term monetary policy expectations. The statement that weighed on markets was probably: “the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on
Yesterday’s record high close in the SPX was by the thinnest of margins and more strength is required to clear technical resistance. If the SPX manages to clear technical resistance, the rule of thumb on new highs usually assigns ~10% upside.
Earlier this morning, the S&P 500 briefly traded above the February 19, 2020 intraday record high of 3393. That’s encouraging but the close is what matters to technicians. Old highs act as fairly strong technical resistance and we thought the index would run out of
Thus far, investors haven’t been using growth stocks as a funding source for increased positioning in cyclical/value sectors. Still-light broad equity positioning, record cash balances and an unconvinced investor base (some recency bias combined with more than 3 years of head fakes) are the main
Ten-year Treasury yields hit an eight week high yesterday and 30-year yield broke through the 50 and 100-day moving average that CTAs sometimes use as a trigger. The ~1.40% level also looks like a near-term technical resistance zone. A sustained break above ~1.45% could lead
