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Morning Notes

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Morning Notes — April Catalysts

Morning Notes — April Catalysts

Reports citing progress in Seattle and New Rochelle helped sentiment yesterday. More reports today discuss relative success from early social distancing measures in California. NYC is still the main area of concern with higher infection rates, crowded hospitals, lack of adequate supplies and higher mortality

Morning Notes — Retest Likely

Morning Notes — Retest Likely

The Fed’s various liquidity facilities have eased some market stress, evidenced by the contraction in High Yield credit spreads. Monday was the widest at ~861bps and they’ve since narrowed to 590bps. As discussed last week, the narrowing of HY credit spreads would be the likely

Morning Notes — What to Expect

Morning Notes — What to Expect

The S&P 500 is bouncing off deeply oversold levels after a successful two-session reversal (Monday and Tuesday). At the moment, the SPX has rallied +15.5% from Monday’s low, which matches our expectations for a 10-25% oversold bounce. Technical resistance lies just ahead at ~2650 and

Morning Notes — How it Works

Morning Notes — How it Works

The impact of the outbreak will leave a massive pothole in the US economy and S&P 500 earnings. A steep uncertainty discount has been applied…it’s a moving target of a moving target around infection rates and the negative economic impact of containment efforts. But there’s