• Some focus on a deceleration in weekly jobless claims that came in at 5.245M vs 6.615M last week and below consensus for 5.803M. This is still a huge number, but suggests a possible plateau ahead of the most dire predictions for a peak near
Weaker than expected US economic data gets credit for today’s reversal but the more important reports are tomorrow’s release of weekly US jobless claims and Friday’s release of China March activity data. Consensus is looking for ~5.5MM claims, which would be down from 6.606MM last
At current levels, the S&P 500 is near the upper-end of a fairly easy-to-identify technical resistance zone of ~2750-2840. At the moment, the SPX is being driven by a sentiment and positioning-driven pain trade that could easily overwhelm overhead technical supply.
Market participants typically begin using forward-year SPX EPS estimates around the middle of the year, but that process may begin sooner given current circumstances. The 2021 SPX EPS estimate is now ~$172 but expected to change as we get into Q1 earnings season. The forward
Next Tuesday kicks off the CQ1 earnings season with the first few days mostly focused on results for large US banks. For the last several years, investors have paid attention to bank Net Interest Margins, loan growth and trading income. However, the attention will now
Yesterday’s late afternoon fade in the S&P 500 had the index closing at 2659, which just happens to be inside our previewed technical resistance zone of 2650-2665. But the fade into the close probably looked worse than it felt as sector dispersion favored cyclically-sensitive groups
Credit spreads: The CDX Investment Grade credit spread narrows another ~10bps to ~107. The spread was in the 40-50bps range before dislocation and reached a wide of ~154bps on March 20. The CDX High Yield credit spread is down ~28bps to ~672bps. This was in
OPEC+ will hold an emergency meeting Monday, but the probability of anything close to a 10M barrel per day cut remains low. Russia’s willingness to cut if the US and Saudis also cut, suggests US shale production was probably the biggest reason Russia refused to
OPEC+ will hold an emergency meeting Monday, but the probability of anything close to a 10M barrel per day cut remains low. Russia’s willingness to cut if the US and Saudis also cut, suggests US shale production was probably the biggest reason Russia refused to
Trump’s comment about a “ten million barrel and possibly more” Saudi/Russia production cut was more than enough to start today’s short-squeeze in deeply oversold crude prices. A lack of detail creates understandable skepticism in other markets with HY credit spreads only contracting by 11bps to
